赛前预测：梅威瑟vs库托

D.T. · 发表于 2012-5-4 02:13:48

本帖最后由 D.T. 于 2012-5-4 11:29 编辑

信息来源：http://www.mayweather-vs-cotto.com
翻译：D.T.

First, the writer would like to inform you that he is a fan of Mayweather, so you will be expecting this article to be leaning towards the undefeated American pugilist.

首先，需要一提的是本文作者是一位“梅迷”，所以本文中的观点都是倾向于这位不败的美国拳手的。

The most entertaining part of the fight, scheduled for 12 rounds, is certainly the first few rounds. During this time, the two boxers will be at their best power and speed. In the later rounds, they will gradually slow down and the fight can go either way depending on their conditioning and training, which many of us do not see.

这场12回合的战斗最有趣的部分无疑是比赛的最初几回合。在这几个回合中，两位拳手的力量和速度都处于最佳状态。而在后几个回合中，双方的速度都会逐渐变慢，比赛的走势取决于两位拳手的训练程度和状态，这是我们目前所看不到的。

In the first round, Floyd Mayweather and Miguel Cotto will throw short punches and jabs. This is the perfect time to study the opponent’s fighting strategies. They will also check how commanding his power punches are.

在第一回合，梅威瑟和库托都将以短拳和刺拳作为主要攻击手段。这一回合既是双方研究对手战术绝佳时机，也能够对对手的重拳力度有所判断。

The much-experienced and versatile Mayweather, expected to move backwards and defend himself using his shoulder-roll is going to throw most of his power punches in the following rounds. Miguel Cotto, who has the weight and power advantages, will try to throw his 3 to 4 punch combinations in the first round if he can bring Floyd to the corner ropes.

梅威瑟经验丰富且灵活多变，在比赛的第一回合他将以后撤和提肩防守为主，而他的大多数重拳会留到后面的回合中施展。库托这边则占有体重和力量优势，如果他能将梅威瑟逼到拳角，他会尝试用3~4拳的组合拳攻击对手。

Predicted to change his stance during the fight, Miguel Cotto’s right hooks and uppercuts will be his main weapon against Mayweather if he fights in close range, which is very difficult if he fights against this very elusive and talented opponent.

在比赛中，库托可能会变回左势拳手（他本就是左撇子），届时他的右手平勾和上勾将成为与梅威瑟近战时的主要武器。当然了，与梅威瑟这样一位难以捉摸的天才拳手对决，想靠近他是非常困难的。

In the second and third rounds, Floyd will do his best to elude the power punches of Miguel to avoid a knockout. His accurate punches will hurt Cotto if he (Cotto) is not fast enough to defend. Mayweather’s defense is one of the best in the sport and he is one of the few boxers who can win in the scorecards even though he is moving backwards. Floyd’s opponents does not know when he will strike because of his ability to fake and hesitate, similar to what he did against the then undefeated Ricky Hatton of England.

在比赛的第2至3回合，梅威瑟会使尽解数躲避库托的重拳从而避免被击倒。而如果库托的防守不够快的话，梅威瑟的精准出拳也能伤害到他。梅威瑟的防守是当今拳坛最好的之一，他也是为数不多的能在比赛中一直后退但同时在裁判记分卡上领先的拳手。梅威瑟的对手总是不知道他会何时出拳，他的假动作是在是太完美了，这一点在对战当时还是不败的英国拳王里奇.哈顿时就体现的很充分。

Miguel Cotto is a known power puncher and according to many predictions, he can win this bout only if he KO Mayweather. If the fight goes the distance, Mayweather will win it by points.

库托是一名著名的重炮手，而根据许多赛前预测，库托只有通过KO的方式才能击败梅威瑟。如果比赛中大家拉开距离，梅威瑟必将点胜。

In the early rounds, Miguel’s punches will be very strong because both of his hands have knockout power. If he can hit the button, he can win this fight via stoppage and he will be the first boxer to win against the Grand Rapids, Michigan native.

在比赛的最初几回合，库托的拳会很重，因为他双手都拥有击倒对手的力量。如果他能击中要害，他就能通过KO的方式提前终止比赛，而届时他将成为第一个击败那位密歇根州大瀑布市的拳手。

Floyd is very difficult to read, which is evident in his last several fights. He was able to outclass Juan Manuel Marquez, a known tactician and counter-puncher and he was able to win against Shane Mosley, who almost kayoed him in the early rounds of their bout.

梅威瑟是很难解读的，这在他最近的几场比赛中体现得很明显。马奎兹作为一名著名的战术型及反击型拳手，在和梅威瑟比赛时明显不在一个层次。而莫斯利尽管在开始阶段差点击倒了梅威瑟，但最终的结果还是落败。

Cotto’s knockout percentage is much higher than Floyd; but the latter’s accuracy is the best in the sport. In rounds 3 to 6, the fight can go either way because during this time Mayweather has already figured the techniques of Cotto and will be able to land powerful punches to the huge body of the Puerto Rican boxing icon. Mayweather will win the points in most of the rounds . Miguel should do his best to hit the chin of Floyd or he will lose by points in the first half of the battle.

库托的击倒率比梅威瑟高得多，但后者的出拳精度在当今拳坛无人能及。在比赛的3至6回合比赛的趋势就会发生改变，因为此时的梅威瑟已经解读了库托的技术特点，并且在梅威瑟的精准出拳面前，库托身上可以落拳地方实在是太多了。梅威瑟将赢得比赛中的大多数回合，而库托必须得尽全力击中梅威瑟的下巴否则在比赛的前半段他必将在点数伤落后。

In the later rounds, Floyd will continue to run around the ring and release his barrage of punches when the right time comes. Cotto will slow down and his power will be much lesser compared to the early rounds.

在比赛的后面几回合，梅威瑟将继续绕着绳圈跑，并找准机会倾泻火力。库托的速度则会变慢，出拳力量相比前几回合也会下降很多。

Final prediction: Mayweather wins by points.

最终预测：梅威瑟点胜库托。

==================我是那飘逸的分割线==================

虽然最终结果与该作者预测的一致，但过程预测还是有很大区别的：

1、首先，库托的拳头没有作者所说的那么重。

2、几年前的梅威瑟vs库托可能会和文中说的那样库托追着梅威瑟跑，但从梅的近几场比赛来看，实际情况很可能是相反的。

3、比赛可能不会有那么多曲折，而是早早的就确定了比赛的走向。